Prediction

Last time I predicted something - that Speaker Martin would not resign....on the very day that he resigned - I got it spectacularly wrong. The Great Iain Dale commented on that post along the lines of "sucks doesn't it", which made me laugh.

Well here I go again: I can see no way that Gordy will either resign or call an election anytime soon, despite the media frenzy and The Sun's Paul Kavanagh saying he'll be gone in a week.

Why? Well, apart from the political editors of the dead tree press, he is under no real pressure to do so. Are there any plots being detailed, day by day, in the press like all through the latter years of Blair's premiership or even last summer when Milliband bottled it? No. Are there Labour backbenchers charging around calling for him to go? No.

The NuLab big hitters don't want the poisoned chalice now, preferring a run at it after the forthcoming General Election. The myriad of backbenchers who will lose their seats are not suddenly going to behave like turkeys voting for Christmas.

So, I see no real pressure. Yes a few deadbeat ministers have resigned before they were ritually slaughtered but so what?

(So that will be him resigning this afternoon and Mr Dale's comment inbound, then).